The novel coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis suggests that the cases are linked through community transmission and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely in the state.
Seems like it’s been around while without much happening if this is true.
5-10% ICU rates on a 1-week delay. (Average Chinese incubation was 5.5 days you won’t see it in a hospital even in “bad cold” form) 1-2% mortality on a 2-3 week delay. Call it 2. Tripling every week.
Start with 5 cases in Week 1. The second week of January.
5/0/0 cases/ICU/mortality.
15/0/0
45/1/0
225/6/0
675/17/0-1
2000/50/3
It’s been a month and a half and you still have 50 cases of “a bad flu” in the entire country, 3 deaths, and we’re *here* give or take a week. If China hadn’t spotted it, I’m not sure we’d notice.
6K/150/9
18K/450/27
54K/1300/80
This is mid-late March and the point at which I’d pull the trigger on getting at-risk relatives inside…
150K/4K/250
450K/12K/750
1.3M/36K/2250…
This is mid-April, and the point at which I’d bet they shut down flights give or take a week. Give or take here is the point at which your medical system starts to quietly explode, so start inching up the death rate for the next couple of weeks to 2% or so.
4 Million/110K/8K
12 Million/330K/25K
36 Million/1 Million/80K
110 Million/3 Million/240K
And that’s basically pandemic by mid-May. Cut it off at say 160 Million
160 Million/8-9 Million/360K
160 Million/10-11 Million/1.1 Million
160 Million/12 Million/3 Million dead.
And then it burns out somewhere near mid-June.
If you ever pull a China and shut it all down, figure another doubling to quadrupling in cases as entire families get it, and of course, serious catch-up as ICU and deaths are on a delay.
And then you do this math with China at x8 and suddenly you get Comrade Xi shutting down China for a month in a desperate attempt to just reset this thing.
pluspluspangolin